The seige of Sirte?
The Gadaffi hometown of Sirte is being advanced on by the Lybian Transitional Council and some of his family have fled to a neighbouring state. To put it honestly to save life its about time Sirte surrendered or faced street by street warfare or being laid seige too (either of which is not good for the civilian population).
Wednesday 31 August 2011
Tuesday 30 August 2011
ECB at teh European Parliament
As the head of the European Central Bank is called to the European Parliament to explain options to halt the spread of debt contagion across the European Union and Euro area, the question to ask is what are the options available to them and how does it impact on the UK with its own currency but membership of the European Union..These are my best guesses as to what can be done:
1) More Quantitative Easing, but this would erode the value of assets in states that have them and cause inflation in those that don’t if spent in the same way as previous issues in certain European states. As such a further segregation between retail, investment, NGO and speculative / multinational investment is desirable and required. In effect the Queen would still have the deeds of Sandringham and the millions in Coutts but they’d potentially be worth a lot less if this further segregation didn’t happen.
2) Split the Euro in two so that those that can support the others remain economically competitive so in effect there are three main currencies in the EU (including Pound sterling). The danger with that is that in its creation or implementation, currency speculation could destabilise the economy even more than keeping the Euro together. However currency separation for Greece, Italy and Portugal, with Ireland having some form of economic cooperation with the UK could be an option if for political and international reasons Uk joining the Euro is not an option.
3) Creating investment bond framework for Europe wide infrastructure projects (such as electrifying rail Line Holyhead- Crewe / Chester) for when more of the deficit is paid back and investment is encouraged.4) Encourage EU and UN member states that have a high enough credit rating (such as the UK) to do 3) on a state by state basis subject to preceding obligations (eg to IMF / World Bank) and present international commitments to help new democracies. Whether that requires the ECB or European Parliament to set targets or that is left to the nation states I do not know the precise answer.
If left to the ECB for the Euro and member states for the rest then federal states outside of the Euro such as the UK can set their treasury guidelines to maintain their international obligations so that their devolved governments can invest in infrastructure such as the Cardiff rail up grade or a passenger service from the East of Anglesey via Llandudno Junction to Balenau Ffestiniog, and a Aberystwyth to Holyhead rail service Via Barmouth and a new line on the Pwlhelli Peninsular and bridge across the Menai or the Glasgow airport rail link or Scotland –Leeds High speed rail line if that distinct legal jurisdiction can set up government bonds for Transport Scotland (its devolved transport body). In the case of London and England these devolved assemblies and at present counties (until England gets her own Parliament) have similar schemes such as Phase Two of the East London Line extension to Clapham and its possible looping via Balham.
The additional rolling stock from Bombardier as an add on to the existing order of that is allowed under EU competition and tendering law. Another one to occur after that is the Croxley rail link proposal to extend the Metropolitan Line to Watford Junction.
Other states of similar size to the EU such as Russia, China, India and USA could potentially have similar devolved fiscal issues unless there is an attempt for sovereign debt restructuring similar to that done for the developing world by the G20 in 2005 in case unexpected events such as weather disturbances upset economic plans and targets and the necessary need to help the poor and aid the new democracies in the Medditeranean, East Africa and elsewhere in the world.
1) More Quantitative Easing, but this would erode the value of assets in states that have them and cause inflation in those that don’t if spent in the same way as previous issues in certain European states. As such a further segregation between retail, investment, NGO and speculative / multinational investment is desirable and required. In effect the Queen would still have the deeds of Sandringham and the millions in Coutts but they’d potentially be worth a lot less if this further segregation didn’t happen.
2) Split the Euro in two so that those that can support the others remain economically competitive so in effect there are three main currencies in the EU (including Pound sterling). The danger with that is that in its creation or implementation, currency speculation could destabilise the economy even more than keeping the Euro together. However currency separation for Greece, Italy and Portugal, with Ireland having some form of economic cooperation with the UK could be an option if for political and international reasons Uk joining the Euro is not an option.
3) Creating investment bond framework for Europe wide infrastructure projects (such as electrifying rail Line Holyhead- Crewe / Chester) for when more of the deficit is paid back and investment is encouraged.4) Encourage EU and UN member states that have a high enough credit rating (such as the UK) to do 3) on a state by state basis subject to preceding obligations (eg to IMF / World Bank) and present international commitments to help new democracies. Whether that requires the ECB or European Parliament to set targets or that is left to the nation states I do not know the precise answer.
If left to the ECB for the Euro and member states for the rest then federal states outside of the Euro such as the UK can set their treasury guidelines to maintain their international obligations so that their devolved governments can invest in infrastructure such as the Cardiff rail up grade or a passenger service from the East of Anglesey via Llandudno Junction to Balenau Ffestiniog, and a Aberystwyth to Holyhead rail service Via Barmouth and a new line on the Pwlhelli Peninsular and bridge across the Menai or the Glasgow airport rail link or Scotland –Leeds High speed rail line if that distinct legal jurisdiction can set up government bonds for Transport Scotland (its devolved transport body). In the case of London and England these devolved assemblies and at present counties (until England gets her own Parliament) have similar schemes such as Phase Two of the East London Line extension to Clapham and its possible looping via Balham.
The additional rolling stock from Bombardier as an add on to the existing order of that is allowed under EU competition and tendering law. Another one to occur after that is the Croxley rail link proposal to extend the Metropolitan Line to Watford Junction.
Other states of similar size to the EU such as Russia, China, India and USA could potentially have similar devolved fiscal issues unless there is an attempt for sovereign debt restructuring similar to that done for the developing world by the G20 in 2005 in case unexpected events such as weather disturbances upset economic plans and targets and the necessary need to help the poor and aid the new democracies in the Medditeranean, East Africa and elsewhere in the world.
Monday 22 August 2011
Thursday 18 August 2011
Southern israel shootings
Southern Israel shootings
BBC News online has reported that Israel is investigating shots being fired at it from across its border with Egypt south of the Gaza territory that was handed back in 2005.
This territory was part of Israel in 1948 and is not 'occupied territory.' It is up to the Egyptian democracy to co-operate as part of its peace treaty with Israel in order to stop the loss of life that only fanatics would want in order to stop a new Palestinian state being successful.
It is also why peace walls outside of urban areas have a part to play in making Israel secure if the border is internationally recognised.
This does not negate from a joint status solution for Jerusalem, Bethlehem and Ramallah as the Palestinian assembly is next door to a peace wall. Thus from a practical viewpoint it is better for a common security force for that 'tri city area' that has the confidence of all its residents.
I apologise if writing this so quickly after it happened is disrespectful.
BBC News online has reported that Israel is investigating shots being fired at it from across its border with Egypt south of the Gaza territory that was handed back in 2005.
This territory was part of Israel in 1948 and is not 'occupied territory.' It is up to the Egyptian democracy to co-operate as part of its peace treaty with Israel in order to stop the loss of life that only fanatics would want in order to stop a new Palestinian state being successful.
It is also why peace walls outside of urban areas have a part to play in making Israel secure if the border is internationally recognised.
This does not negate from a joint status solution for Jerusalem, Bethlehem and Ramallah as the Palestinian assembly is next door to a peace wall. Thus from a practical viewpoint it is better for a common security force for that 'tri city area' that has the confidence of all its residents.
I apologise if writing this so quickly after it happened is disrespectful.
Thursday 11 August 2011
Israel seeks to build new settlements The Israeli government has reconfirmed that it intends to build 1,600 new homes for 'settlers' in East Jerusal
The Israeli government has reconfirmed that it intends to build 1,600 new homes for 'settlers' in East Jerusalem to reduce teh cost of affordable housing by increasing its supply.
The Palestinians are gainst it but since the Israelis say their motivation is economic could teh Palesitinans build an equal number in Israel or West Jerusalem, purchasing teh ladn under the relevant legal jurisdiction, and then exchange them as apart of a peace negotiation?
Another option would be that as part of teh two state solution, a Jerusalem, Bethlehem and Ramallah joint capital city area is established and settlements such as these become diplomat housing for either legislature (Palestinian or Israeli) or any UN presence there. However according to BBC News website at present there are no new peace negotiation initaitives.
Palestine is seeking UN recognition for statehood this September.
The Palestinians are gainst it but since the Israelis say their motivation is economic could teh Palesitinans build an equal number in Israel or West Jerusalem, purchasing teh ladn under the relevant legal jurisdiction, and then exchange them as apart of a peace negotiation?
Another option would be that as part of teh two state solution, a Jerusalem, Bethlehem and Ramallah joint capital city area is established and settlements such as these become diplomat housing for either legislature (Palestinian or Israeli) or any UN presence there. However according to BBC News website at present there are no new peace negotiation initaitives.
Palestine is seeking UN recognition for statehood this September.
Should you be affected by riots earlier in the week
101 Metropolitian police non urgent number to report what you see or if you were involved to give a statement to the police.
0207 230 1212 for areas of England and Wales where that number is not in use.
LOCAL AUTHORITIES
Going to the Borough civic centre to seek emergency 24 hour housing and social services assessment is an option. The civic centre switchboard number can be found in the phone book or on each boroughs website.
0207 230 1212 for areas of England and Wales where that number is not in use.
LOCAL AUTHORITIES
Going to the Borough civic centre to seek emergency 24 hour housing and social services assessment is an option. The civic centre switchboard number can be found in the phone book or on each boroughs website.
Council housing to be confiscated from Rioters
The government has said that poeple will lose their council homes if they participate in riots and one English county council is being used as a test case. Hence if yuo know anyone who was out in thevening over the past few nights please tell them to co-operate now. Other wise they could lose their housing and related DWP benefits. This is not a game and could leave you in a worse situation.
Friday 5 August 2011
Sweden atom experiment not terrorist
A Swede has conducted a home made radiological experiment, it has not been reported as a terrorist incident. In the UK this is done in labs and is regulated. Even if the world were to completely disarm itself of nuclear weapons there would still be a need for International nuclear regulation for nuclear power in geologically safe areas. As I understand it this is done through nation states and their own legal systems and co-operation.
A point of clarification
The House of Lords is selected by an appointments commission on agreed criteria and statute. Being a peer is decided by the crown upon advice of the College of arms. Both have criteria that prior to seperation were set by the Cabinet Office.
Since the repeal of the right of hereditary peers to sit in the Lords the two are quasi separate as i understand it.
If there is an elected senate after the passing of the bill today according to teh current statutory procedures and constitution for ammending the westminster constitution, then there is still the need for a codified constitution. At present as a possible first step the current government is drafting a bill of rights distinct from European Law for the UK.
Since the repeal of the right of hereditary peers to sit in the Lords the two are quasi separate as i understand it.
If there is an elected senate after the passing of the bill today according to teh current statutory procedures and constitution for ammending the westminster constitution, then there is still the need for a codified constitution. At present as a possible first step the current government is drafting a bill of rights distinct from European Law for the UK.
Thursday 4 August 2011
Why speculating against the Euro is dangerous
Today European Finance ministers met and the ECB has been stabilising countries where interest rates are higher by buying their governments bonds. These countries within the Euro zone have had higher unemployment and (in the case of Greece and parts of Spain and Portugal) more seasonal economies.
As such there is the option of further economic integration and debt stabilisation within the Eurozone but that would create a two tier Europe as the European Commission and Parliament could get democratic control of the Euro which would undermine the idea of european nation states sharing sovereignty and leave states without the Euro with less control over the European Union. That is why the UK always seeks to meet its international obligations at the IMF and world bank and through that is stabilising the European and International economic system.
Yet the ECB can't buy back the bonds of governments within the Euro indefinitely.
As such there is the option of further economic integration and debt stabilisation within the Eurozone but that would create a two tier Europe as the European Commission and Parliament could get democratic control of the Euro which would undermine the idea of european nation states sharing sovereignty and leave states without the Euro with less control over the European Union. That is why the UK always seeks to meet its international obligations at the IMF and world bank and through that is stabilising the European and International economic system.
Yet the ECB can't buy back the bonds of governments within the Euro indefinitely.
welsh language consultation
The Bank of England is consulting on a welsh language policy for its Agency in Wales. It has four staff members in Wales of whom one is a welsh speaker and as of 2008 has been designated as having to apply the welsh language act for correspondence in welsh in Wales according to the devolved guidelines of the welsh language board as mandated by the elected Welsh Assembly.
Details of the language policy consultation running to August 19th can be found at www.bankofengland.co.uk
Details of the language policy consultation running to August 19th can be found at www.bankofengland.co.uk
The flaws in the argument I posted on Monday.
The counter argument to managed longer repayment of sovereign debt by those countries that can such as the uSA, China, India and Russia is that for those countries that arecurrently well off and thus counterbalance the economic situation (Russia and China) could be economically drained instead of investing in economic activity such as Gas, and electric power based on their technological expertise. It could introduce too mamny variables enabling a futures trader to do a oros and risk the economic stability on the stock exchange unless its set out by global rules and procedures and agreements.
Hence global belt tightening by a cessation of all nuclear weapon programmes is a good idea while any such agreements or ammendments are needed. And if I can give a UK example a review of where troops are recruited from and deployed for the TA in case dissident Republicans start to propagandise that its a return to the B specials and G men in Ulster which it isn't after the Patten reforms and apology for Bloody Sunday. That would set international precedents that could help Russia achieve democratic change and a reduction in hostilities by peace process in its Southern Republics (as its a federal state).
Hence global belt tightening by a cessation of all nuclear weapon programmes is a good idea while any such agreements or ammendments are needed. And if I can give a UK example a review of where troops are recruited from and deployed for the TA in case dissident Republicans start to propagandise that its a return to the B specials and G men in Ulster which it isn't after the Patten reforms and apology for Bloody Sunday. That would set international precedents that could help Russia achieve democratic change and a reduction in hostilities by peace process in its Southern Republics (as its a federal state).
Wednesday 3 August 2011
Northern Rock Results today
Northern Rocks losses are a byproduct of tHe North East of England being dependant on Japanese firms since teh 1980s. Given recent events in Japan the reduction in teh supply of parts for their factories here and resultant job losses on top of reductions in the economy is to be expected. Previous reports on Northern Rock showed that it had since state ownership stopped its 125% mortgages and reinstated responsible lending based on the review of financial services and teh reform of the tripartite system.
Tuesday 2 August 2011
Syria
The Syrian government has started to use tanks against its population in the city of Hama. This has been condemned by the UK government. There is a mediated peace process through teh medditteranean Union and teh Arab League and as such the violence should cease. Turkey has provided peaceful mediation in the past as Israel and SYria are in a cold peace and after Lebanon and Gaza withdrawals, a solely Israeli intervention could jeopardise its peace agreements with other states and jeopardise a peace accord with Palestine as it seeks statehood at the UN in September.However any UN led military intervention has to be done after a UN resolution and Chapeter 7 resolution.
How to ensure that there are no panic situations with investment banks and multinational ones like HSBC
HSBC is a multinational bank with a registered HQ in one country but divisions based in other countries and legal jurisdictrions and tax locations like many others. Since the G20 banks such as these are required to hold more cash reserves and investments and lend slightly less and not mortgages at above a certain amount of a persons income.
An example of a bank which didn't do that is Northern Rock wihich didn't do that with 125% mortgages and paid the consequences needing state bailout debt restructuring and loss adjustment (allowing its customers to default with debt advice and support) so that now its shares can be sold off again on the UK states stock exchange should the government be so minded.
However Northern Rock was a mainly one jurisdiction bank and not a multinational one like JP Morgan, Barclays or HSBC. What happens now for banks such as these affected by the East Africa droughts or Australasian Earthquakes, how does the international community ensure that aid and reconstruction continues and is stabilised.
While The previous UK governments tripartite regulation system failed to prevent the last recession it did mitifgate it unlike previous ones where credit spivs and doorsteo lenders exacerbated the microeconomic pain within a jurisdiction. that is because the FSa amalgamated self created and self regulated bodies which were accountable to parliament and the treasury but could not be coordinated under the economic regulations of the day. The FSA is funded by a percentage of share dividends and profits from all those who it regulates so if the World Bank could have a similar body within and offerring full disclosure to it of the danger zones without delay as occurred in the UK prior to Northern Rocks collapse (which created ongoing lending and the long boom 1992-2007). Then it could liase with the UN and teh G20 to produce combined sovereign debt restructuring, longer repayment periods for those that can (such as Sundays compromise for the USA and states of similar economic size such as Russia, India and China) and write off for those that can't (such as agreed at Gleneagles by the G8 in 2005 and followed through with with the G20 in London prior to the last general election) and find ways of reducing teh risks to the investment banks and those who are really 'casinos' to quote the Business secretary Vince Cable by restructuring repayments in a similar way that the futures market did after the Oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. This is especially important if there are more earthquakes or reductions in states GDPs owing to unpredictable transport delays between states (such as Volcanic ash clouds and aviation) as
If that is done then corporations who have the investments of places such as Middle America and Metroland and Germany would be as protected as hard working families who have invested in them are being done now with the speration of retail and investment banking that is already underway. Then the Euro could be sustained with perhaps a period with Greece having its own currency if needed which in turn could allow the pound sterling to survive and sustain the economy peacefully. This is important so that the UK constitution is reformed such as the election of second chamber, codification of the constitution and the resolution of the West Lothian question with an English Parliament and regional cttes based on regional stv voting system for England within the Second Chamber. Within that context there is also the resolution of the status of Scotland following the democratic mandate the secessionist SNP achieved.
They could then in turn aid regional economic recovery in Northern England, Scotland and South Wales with better Transport links sustainably funded through Investment banks investing in Government bonds for projects such as rail both conventional and highspeed. The UK has several projects such as these in the development pool and one of these is Croxley Rail Link where the devolved transport authority for the neighbouring region and county has with it and district / borough / unitary council support and engineering advice by the Federal Rail agency (Network Rail) delivered a submission and public consultation. This one could be a case study for bond issues as the WEstminster MP for Watford has advocated the retention of the land that was to be sold off to fund it for overnight train storage (also post recession its land value may have gone down).
In short as the FTSE opens today there is no need to panic. It is also the case that now Wales has primary law making powers its regional financial regulation should be turned into national status to fund its transport improvements as mandated by the Welsh Sennedd.
Globally World Bank regulation of investment and multinational banks and credit institutions could be funded as the same way as the UK FSA has been with an insurance fund / capital reserves for their restructuring and default in the event of natural disasters such as in east Africa and to ensure that crudely put without waiting for UN accounts to be signed off, aid can get to the poor by trained and aided aid workers and medics. The status of Un financial management is the next potential problem.
An example of a bank which didn't do that is Northern Rock wihich didn't do that with 125% mortgages and paid the consequences needing state bailout debt restructuring and loss adjustment (allowing its customers to default with debt advice and support) so that now its shares can be sold off again on the UK states stock exchange should the government be so minded.
However Northern Rock was a mainly one jurisdiction bank and not a multinational one like JP Morgan, Barclays or HSBC. What happens now for banks such as these affected by the East Africa droughts or Australasian Earthquakes, how does the international community ensure that aid and reconstruction continues and is stabilised.
While The previous UK governments tripartite regulation system failed to prevent the last recession it did mitifgate it unlike previous ones where credit spivs and doorsteo lenders exacerbated the microeconomic pain within a jurisdiction. that is because the FSa amalgamated self created and self regulated bodies which were accountable to parliament and the treasury but could not be coordinated under the economic regulations of the day. The FSA is funded by a percentage of share dividends and profits from all those who it regulates so if the World Bank could have a similar body within and offerring full disclosure to it of the danger zones without delay as occurred in the UK prior to Northern Rocks collapse (which created ongoing lending and the long boom 1992-2007). Then it could liase with the UN and teh G20 to produce combined sovereign debt restructuring, longer repayment periods for those that can (such as Sundays compromise for the USA and states of similar economic size such as Russia, India and China) and write off for those that can't (such as agreed at Gleneagles by the G8 in 2005 and followed through with with the G20 in London prior to the last general election) and find ways of reducing teh risks to the investment banks and those who are really 'casinos' to quote the Business secretary Vince Cable by restructuring repayments in a similar way that the futures market did after the Oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. This is especially important if there are more earthquakes or reductions in states GDPs owing to unpredictable transport delays between states (such as Volcanic ash clouds and aviation) as
If that is done then corporations who have the investments of places such as Middle America and Metroland and Germany would be as protected as hard working families who have invested in them are being done now with the speration of retail and investment banking that is already underway. Then the Euro could be sustained with perhaps a period with Greece having its own currency if needed which in turn could allow the pound sterling to survive and sustain the economy peacefully. This is important so that the UK constitution is reformed such as the election of second chamber, codification of the constitution and the resolution of the West Lothian question with an English Parliament and regional cttes based on regional stv voting system for England within the Second Chamber. Within that context there is also the resolution of the status of Scotland following the democratic mandate the secessionist SNP achieved.
They could then in turn aid regional economic recovery in Northern England, Scotland and South Wales with better Transport links sustainably funded through Investment banks investing in Government bonds for projects such as rail both conventional and highspeed. The UK has several projects such as these in the development pool and one of these is Croxley Rail Link where the devolved transport authority for the neighbouring region and county has with it and district / borough / unitary council support and engineering advice by the Federal Rail agency (Network Rail) delivered a submission and public consultation. This one could be a case study for bond issues as the WEstminster MP for Watford has advocated the retention of the land that was to be sold off to fund it for overnight train storage (also post recession its land value may have gone down).
In short as the FTSE opens today there is no need to panic. It is also the case that now Wales has primary law making powers its regional financial regulation should be turned into national status to fund its transport improvements as mandated by the Welsh Sennedd.
Globally World Bank regulation of investment and multinational banks and credit institutions could be funded as the same way as the UK FSA has been with an insurance fund / capital reserves for their restructuring and default in the event of natural disasters such as in east Africa and to ensure that crudely put without waiting for UN accounts to be signed off, aid can get to the poor by trained and aided aid workers and medics. The status of Un financial management is the next potential problem.
Monday 1 August 2011
HSBC job losses
HSBC has announced that it is to cut 25,000 jobs. It is not a panic situation for teh global economy as this bank is one which has teh greatest number of countries in which it operates. It has so far managed to avoid UK government taxpayer support.
With the US government agreeing debt restructuring over ten years of an amount that it will borrow by raising its debt ceiling of its government borrowing by that amount. At the time of state intervention in the banking sector by buying shares previously, the offer of state support was made to HSBC and other banks.
The question to ask is if to maintain cvilian infrastructure in rural locations in other countries is a global private sector institution allowed to use funds gained from one states jurisdiction to subsidise its operations in that state under ultra vires.
If not then HSBC has no option but to go to each nation state individually and make its own job losses in each global institution accordingly. The alternative is for the world bank to regulate multinational financial institutions as well as aid statesbut that might be democratically unpalatable in many countries.
With the US government agreeing debt restructuring over ten years of an amount that it will borrow by raising its debt ceiling of its government borrowing by that amount. At the time of state intervention in the banking sector by buying shares previously, the offer of state support was made to HSBC and other banks.
The question to ask is if to maintain cvilian infrastructure in rural locations in other countries is a global private sector institution allowed to use funds gained from one states jurisdiction to subsidise its operations in that state under ultra vires.
If not then HSBC has no option but to go to each nation state individually and make its own job losses in each global institution accordingly. The alternative is for the world bank to regulate multinational financial institutions as well as aid statesbut that might be democratically unpalatable in many countries.
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